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Commitments of Trader (COT)

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Commitments of Trader (COT)

Smart money traders and dumb money traders (speculators) abound. However, only the ‘smart’ ones (the commercial traders, a.k.a. ‘Big Dogs’) get their positions reflected in volume and open interest numbers. This information is readily available in the futures world, but not the forex. Even so, it does represent a good proxy for sentiment and, as such, can be used to extrapolate price direction in the cash market.

Turning points in price direction usually occur when open interest reaches extreme levels. Significant changes in both open interest and volume are usually a precursor to signaling a possible change in trend.

Open interest stats. are of little value for intraday trading. However, an awareness of extreme speculation in a particular currency based on open interest and volume data, or a change in trend, can be pivotal in determining the future direction of price

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